Real-time Investigation of Measles Epidemics with Estimate of Vaccine Efficacy

As part of measles elimination effort, evaluation of the vaccination program and real-time assessment of the epidemic dynamics constitute two important tasks to improve and strengthen the control. The present study aimed to develop an epidemiological modeling method which can be applied to estimating the vaccine efficacy at an individual level while conducting the timely investigation of the epidemic. The multivariate renewal process model was employed to describe the temporal evolution of infection by vaccination history, jointly estimating the time-dependent reproduction number and the vaccine efficacy. Analyzing the enhanced surveillance data of measles in Aichi prefecture, Japan from 2007-08, the vaccine efficacy was estimated at 96.7% (95% confidence interval: 95.8, 97.4). Using an age structured model, the vaccine efficacy among those aged from 5-19 years was shown to be smaller than that among those from 0-4 years. The age-dependent vaccine efficacy estimate informs the age-groups to be targeted for revaccination. Because the estimation method can rest on readily available epidemiological data, the proposed model has a potential to be integrated with routine surveillance

データ生成過程を伴う疾病伝播ダイナミクスの数理モデリング

学位の種別:課程博士University of Tokyo(東京大学

The Time Required to Estimate the Case Fatality Ratio of Influenza Using Only the Tip of an Iceberg: Joint Estimation of the Virulence and the Transmission Potential

Estimating the case fatality ratio (CFR) of a novel strain of influenza virus during the early stage of the pandemic is one of key epidemiological tasks to be conducted as rapid research response. Past experience during the epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza A (H1N1-2009) posed several technical challenges in estimating the CFR in real time. The present study aimed to develop a simple method to estimate the CFR based on readily available datasets, that is, confirmed cases and deaths, while addressing some of the known technical issues. To assess the reliability and validity of the proposed method, we examined the minimum length of time required for the assigned CFR to be included within the 95% confidence intervals and for the estimated CFR to be below a prespecified cut-off value by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Overall, the smaller the transmission potential was, the longer it took to compare the estimated CFR against the cut-off value. If policymaking and public health response have to be made based on the CFR estimate derived from the proposed method and readily available data, it should be noted that the successful estimation may take longer than a few months

Association of Increased Serum S100B Levels With High School Football Subconcussive Head Impacts

Astrocyte-enriched marker, S100B, shows promise for gauging the severity of acute brain trauma, and understanding subconcussive effects will advance its utility in tracking real-time acute brain damage. The aim of the study was to investigate whether serum S100B elevations were associated with frequency and magnitude of subconcussive head impacts in adolescents. This prospective cohort study of 17 high-school football players consisted of the following 12 time points: pre-season baseline, 5 in-season pre-post games, and post-season. A sensor-installed mouthguard recorded the number of head impacts, peak linear (PLA) and peak rotational (PRA) head accelerations from every practice and game. During the 5 games, players wore chest-strap heart-rate monitors to estimate players' excess post-exercise oxygen consumption (EPOC), accounting for physical exertion effects. At each time point, blood samples were obtained and assessed for S100B and creatine kinase levels to account for astrocyte damage/activation and muscle damage, respectively. Using k-means clustering on the impact data, players were categorized into high- or low-impact group. Two players withdrew during the first month of the study. A total of 156 blood samples from 15 players were assessed for S100B and creatine kinase levels and included in the analysis. A median value of 596 head impacts from 15 players were recorded during all practices and games in a season. S100B levels were significantly elevated in all post-game measures compared with the respective pre-game values (median-increase, 0.022 μg/L; interquartile-range, 0.011–0.043 μg/L, p < 0.05 for all games). Greater acute S100B increases were significantly associated with greater impact frequency, sum of PLA and PRA, with negligible contributions from physical exertion and muscle damage effects. The high-impact group exhibited greater increases in serum S100B levels at post-games than the low-impact group (high vs. low, 0.043 ± 0.035 μg/L vs. 0.019 ± 0.017 μg/L, p = 0.002). The degree of acute S100B increases was correlated with subconcussive head impact exposure, suggesting that acute astrocyte damage may be induced in an impact-dependent manner. Acute changes in serum S100B levels may become a useful tool in monitoring real-time brain damage in sports

Open Access

Cost-effective length and timing of school closure during an influenza pandemic depend on the severit

Early SNS-based monitoring system for the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan: a population-level observational study

Background: The World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) to be a pandemic on March 11, 2020. Large-scale monitoring for capturing the current epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in Japan would improve preparation for and prevention of a massive outbreak. Methods: A chatbot-based healthcare system named COOPERA (COvid-19: Operation for Personalized Empowerment to Render smart prevention And care seeking) was developed using the LINE app to evaluate the current Japanese epidemiological situation. LINE users could participate in the system either though a QR code page in the prefecture’s website, or a banner at the top of the LINE app screen. COOPERA asked participants questions regarding personal information, preventive actions, and non-specific symptoms related to COVID-19 and their duration. We calculated daily cross correlation functions between the reported number of infected cases confirmed by PCR and the symptom-positive group captured by COOPERA. Results: We analyzed 206,218 participants from three prefectures reported between March 5 and 30, 2020. The mean (standard deviation) age of participants was 44.2 (13.2). No symptoms were reported by 96.93% of participants, but there was a significantly positive correlation between the reported number of COVID-19 cases and self-reported fevers, suggesting that massive monitoring of fever might help to estimate the scale of the COVID-19 epidemic in real time. Conclusions: COOPERA is the first real-time system being used to monitor trends in COVID-19 in Japan, and provides useful insights to assist political decisions to tackle the epidemic

Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients with rapid antigen tests

新型コロナウイルス感染者の隔離短縮は可能か？. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2022-08-24.Appropriate isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients are warranted. Currently, isolating for fixed time is adopted in most countries. However, given the variability in viral dynamics between patients, some patients may no longer be infectious by the end of isolation, whereas others may still be infectious. Utilizing viral test results to determine isolation length would minimize both the risk of prematurely ending isolation of infectious patients and the unnecessary individual burden of redundant isolation of noninfectious patients. In this study, we develop a data-driven computational framework to compute the population-level risk and the burden of different isolation guidelines with rapid antigen tests (i.e., lateral flow tests). Here, we show that when the detection limit is higher than the infectiousness threshold values, additional consecutive negative results are needed to ascertain infectiousness status. Further, rapid antigen tests should be designed to have lower detection limits than infectiousness threshold values to minimize the length of prolonged isolation

Revisiting the guidelines for ending isolation for COVID-19 patients

新型コロナウイルス感染者隔離を終了するのはいつが良い？. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2021-07-27.Reducing COVID-19 isolation times. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2021-07-27.Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, two mainstream guidelines for defining when to end the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals have been in use: the one-size-fits-all approach (i.e. patients are isolated for a fixed number of days) and the personalized approach (i.e. based on repeated testing of isolated patients). We use a mathematical framework to model within-host viral dynamics and test different criteria for ending isolation. By considering a fixed time of 10 days since symptom onset as the criterion for ending isolation, we estimated that the risk of releasing an individual who is still infectious is low (0–6.6%). However, this policy entails lengthy unnecessary isolations (4.8–8.3 days). In contrast, by using a personalized strategy, similar low risks can be reached with shorter prolonged isolations. The obtained findings provide a scientific rationale for policies on ending the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals

Association Between Proteomic Blood Biomarkers and DTI/NODDI Metrics in Adolescent Football Players: A Pilot Study

While neuroimaging and blood biomarker have been two of the most active areas of research in the neurotrauma community, these fields rarely intersect to delineate subconcussive brain injury. The aim of the study was to examine the association between diffusion MRI techniques [diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and neurite orientation/dispersion density imaging (NODDI)] and brain-injury blood biomarker levels [tau, neurofilament-light (NfL), glial-fibrillary-acidic-protein (GFAP)] in high-school football players at their baseline, aiming to detect cumulative neuronal damage from prior seasons. Twenty-five football players were enrolled in the study. MRI measures and blood samples were obtained during preseason data collection. The whole-brain, tract-based spatial statistics was conducted for six diffusion metrics: fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), axial/radial diffusivity (AD, RD), neurite density index (NDI), and orientation dispersion index (ODI). Five players were ineligible for MRIs, and three serum samples were excluded due to hemolysis, resulting in 17 completed set of diffusion metrics and blood biomarker levels for association analysis. Our permutation-based regression model revealed that serum tau levels were significantly associated with MD and NDI in various axonal tracts; specifically, elevated serum tau levels correlated to elevated MD (p = 0.0044) and reduced NDI (p = 0.016) in the corpus callosum and surrounding white matter tracts (e.g., longitudinal fasciculus). Additionally, there was a negative association between NfL and ODI in the focal area of the longitudinal fasciculus. Our data suggest that high school football players may develop axonal microstructural abnormality in the corpus callosum and surrounding white matter tracts, such as longitudinal fasciculus. A future study is warranted to determine the longitudinal multimodal relationship in response to repetitive exposure to sports-related head impacts

A quantitative model used to compare within-host SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV dynamics provides insights into the pathogenesis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding of viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published viral load data, we compare within-host viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with analogous dynamics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses using a mathematical model revealed that the within-host reproduction number at symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2 was statistically significantly larger than that of MERS-CoV and similar to that of SARS-CoV. In addition, the time from symptom onset to the viral load peak for SARS-CoV-2 infection was shorter than those of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. These findings suggest the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection by antivirals. We further used the viral dynamics model to predict the efficacy of potential antiviral drugs that have different modes of action. The efficacy was measured by the reduction in the viral load area under the curve (AUC). Our results indicate that therapies that block de novo infection or virus production are likely to be effective if and only if initiated before the viral load peak (which appears 2–3 days after symptom onset), but therapies that promote cytotoxicity of infected cells are likely to have effects with less sensitivity to the timing of treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining a therapy that promotes cytotoxicity and one that blocks de novo infection or virus production synergistically reduces the AUC with early treatment. Our unique modeling approach provides insights into the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 and may be useful for development of antiviral therapies